Tuesday, July 7, 2009

The Last Post

With great sadness, this last blog is to inform:

On June 22, 2009, Patricia Taylor passed away at Moffitt Cancer Center in Tampa, Florida. A memorial service will be held on July 19, 2009 at 1:00 p.m.

Patricia was known for her strong work ethic and her love for family and animals. When she was not selling real estate, she travelled extensively to many countries. All together, she loved life and lived it well.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

The Twenty-Eight Percent Solution

By Michael Saunders & Company On June 17, 2009

The region’s beleaguered real estate market exhibits renewed strength with each passing month. Practically no one, not even the most skeptical observers, will dispute that the market has perked-up considerably. For most of this year, closed sales have steadily crept upwards, pending sales have taken a remarkable bounce; and the inventory of available homes has fallen-off sharply.

Buyers, once content to occupy the sidelines while prices remained in free-fall, have finally been jolted into action by prices that have not only leveled out but have actually begun to inch-up again in the under-$350,000 price range—along with (surprise, surprise) suddenly-rising interest rates. They are also anxious to close on their desired property before the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit [1] expires on December 1. Something of a misnomer, the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit is available to anyone who hasn’t owned a primary residence in the past three years.

Alas, a similar trend toward recovery has yet to firmly take root in the $ 1 million-plus price range; because many sellers have yet to align their expectations with the new realities of the market. Yet as the most recent MLS statistics show, properties are indeed selling where prices have been adjusted downward by an average of 28 percent off their original list prices. Some prices require greater adjustments, some less. We thank each of our sellers who have taken this important message to heart, allowed our agents’ expertise to update their thinking based on the latest data on sold properties; and made the necessary adjustments to their selling prices.

Just as homes from $350,000 and below began to sell briskly once their prices were reduced substantially—due to the impact of foreclosures and short sales—homes in the $ 1 million-plus price range need to be priced in line with what comparable properties are selling for. In this respect we are no different from other high-end luxury markets like the Hamptons, Aspen, Vail, Palm Beach, Boca Raton and Miami. Conferencing with the top brokers in many of these markets strikes the same familiar chord: The difference between average list price and the price that finally brings a buyer to the closing table are often apart by as much as 40 percent.

There is a substantial divide between today’s average list price and what $1 million-plus homes in Southwest Florida are actually selling for, as of May 2009. In the last six months, the difference has averaged 28%, meaning that the average seller may have to lower their price by at least that much to prompt a sale. Fortunately, the trend in recent sales has shown that if the price is right, the buyers are there.

Sellers of luxury homes who list with Michael Saunders & Company have several unique advantages. Because we list and sell more $1 million-plus properties—by far—than any other real estate company in Southwest Florida, we are better positioned to help you price your home correctly from the moment you list it. Or, if it has already sat mute on the market for some time, we are able to advise you by how much you must reduce its listing price to make it sing. At the present time, there are over 1,418 homes in Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte Counties listed for more than $1 million. Buyers barely have the time to visit the homes in their desired price range that are priced correctly, much less those that aren’t.

Further, as the latest TRENDGRAPHIX shows, Michael Saunders & Company continues to bring more buyers to the closing table on properties listed above $1 million than virtually the next three competitors combined.

It’s a fact. You can’t change the market we’re in, but you can heighten your ability to sell your home in a reasonable time frame. Price it in line with the market from day one and it will become an immediate standout to buyers actively searching in its price range.

In just the past two weeks, agents of Michael Saunders & Company have successfully positioned their clients ahead of the market to the tune of more than $30 million in price reductions. Our goal by mid-summer is to at least double that amount so that every priced-right property finds its new owner faster. With statistics proving that the average list price needs to be reduced substantially in order to move it into the sold column, now is the time to act decisively and stop chasing the market down.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Summer's Here in Sarasota

SUMMER'S HERE!
As appeared
MichaelSaunders & Company

Our annual summer rainy season kicked in about six weeks earlier than usual this year; but thankfully not a moment too soon. Not the kind of soggy weather that tosses a wet blanket on anyone’s vacation plans, mind you, but the kind of daily rain event that comes and goes quickly leaving our drought-depleted rivers, lakes and reservoirs a little bit fuller than the day before.
Happily, just as our three-year rainfall drought is easing, so is the more than three-year-old drought choking the region’s real estate market. I’m pleased to report that the news from the market has vastly improved of late. Consumer confidence is up, sales are up, pending sales are up; and the number of available homes is gradually being reduced. This morning—in a front-page, above-the-fold headline—the Sarasota Herald-Tribune trumpeted the good news that area home prices bucked the national trend by rebounding 9.5% from March to April. Further, the median sale price has risen again; and is now up about $20,000 from earlier this year.

All this good news may come as a bit of a surprise to people who assume that as the nation goes, so goes Florida; but as everyone active in the business knows all real estate is local. The national picture is gloomier than ours; weighed down by larger markets—such as Houston—that are just beginning to experience the correction in prices that we’ve been contending with for more than three years. The fact of the matter is this: Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice was among the first markets in the U.S. to experience the trending-down in prices, and is now among the first to begin stabilizing. Yet we still have a great deal of our work cut out for us. For even as the under-$300,000 price bracket is positively percolating with activity, we are working every bit as hard to ignite the same level of buyer activity in the higher price tiers.

As several recent sales have amply demonstrated, buyers are present in the market and widely available at every level of pricing—so long as the perception of value is very, VERY real. To capture these buyers—especially in the $1million-plus price range—significant downward adjustments are still urgently needed to bring prices in line with what statistics show they are now willing to pay. This month’s issue of Saunders@Home speaks to these and other issues related to the state of today’s market and the mindset of the consumer.

Needless-to-say, we’re ready for what lies ahead and fully expect a busy and productive summer.

Meanwhile, enjoy your summer vacation! And by the way, if you’re looking for the best beach in the continental U.S. to play on this summer, look no further. In his 2009 ranking, Stephen Leatherman—aka “Dr. Beach”—has named Siesta Beach the best beach in the contiguous 48 states. Only Hanalei Bay in far-off Hawaii received a better rating; and we’ll match our slice of “paradise” against theirs any day of the week.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Drought Busting Sarasota

As appeared
Michael Saunder@ Home
May 28th, 2009 Category: The Real Estate Market



Nothing pleases us more than to see two droughts ease up just as summer hits its stride.
Until very recently, Southwest Florida was gasping for water; choked by a three-year dearth of rainfall, with no let-up in sight—especially as our scorched landscape limped into Spring. Local meteorologists shook their heads and predicted that the situation was likely to get a lot worse before it got better. The month of May, they reminded us with their best professional hats on, is customarily among the driest of the year.

Then, just as looked like May might live up to its inglorious billing, came the rain. Buckets of it. Torrent after torrent; day after day of glorious rain—a full six weeks ahead of schedule. You couldn’t have imagined a more unlikely end to such a tenacious drought. Yet even though the drought is by no means completely over, all indicators that the end is near are looking very good. New rains come every day with the kind of regularity we haven’t seen in a long time. Ground levels are rising steadily and the major rivers east of town—mostly dried-up riverbeds a few weeks ago—are filling up and flowing freely. Things sure can change quickly around here.
Which brings us to the second drought; whose end we’re also witnessing. We’re talking about the more than three-year-old drought that has plagued the region’s real estate market. Here too, there’s a definite light at the end of the tunnel.

When the rains finally kick in, drought-stricken rivers and parched reservoirs are replenished from the bottom up. Likewise when buyers flood back into a correcting real estate market, the rush typically begins at the bottom of the market and systematically wends its way into the upper price tiers. This phenomenon is solidly apparent from the latest TRENDGRAPHIX statistics for the month of April.

While total unit sales for April were up by more than 10 percent versus last April, 88% of these closed sales involved properties priced below $350,000. Likewise, while pending sales were up an impressive 45 percent over last April, 83% of them involved properties priced below $350,000. With short-sales and foreclosures exerting significant pressure on sellers to lower their prices in order to remain competitive, the inventory of homes in this price range has now been reduced to an almost-healthy 7.8 month supply. (Six to seven months is considered balanced and healthy) Indeed, the rush to buy at such irresistible prices is causing a bottom to form under this particular segment of the market.

Not so the case for homes priced above $350,000, where the “drought” is still very much in effect, with no equivalent rush to buy yet in progress. Closed sales of properties priced between $350,000 and $1 million are 57% below last April. As well, pending sales are down 22% for the same period. This paucity in sales is due to the fact that the list prices on many of the homes in this price range have yet to reflect what comparable homes are actually selling for.

The median price of homes that have sold between $350,000 and $1 million—according to the most recent TRENDGRAPHIX—is $475,000. Half of the homes sold for more; half for less. Meanwhile the average list price is $588,000. That means to compete successfully in this price range you must be willing to lower your price by an average of almost 20 percentage points; or seriously consider not listing your home at all until the market supports your desired price.

The spread between average list price and actual median sale price is even more dramatic in the over $1 million price range. In April, the average list price of $2.32 million was offset by an actual median sale price of $1.3 million. Half of the homes sold for more; half for less. That means to successfully compete in today’s million-dollar-plus market you must often be willing to reduce your asking price by as much as 40%; or not list until the market improves.

Let there be no doubt about it. The drought in home sales is definitely easing. Inventories of available properties are down to their lowest levels in 40 months; and the number of properties with sales pending—1,207—are at their highest level since March 2004, besting the previous month by 18%. Closed sales climbed to 734 for the first time since March 2007—and the April median sale price for both single family homes and condominiums rose above the March 2009 figure. This extends the upward price appreciation into its third consecutive month; perhaps indicative of a market shrugging off the doldrums.

Further, there is no longer anything approaching a wholesale drought with respect to consumer confidence, an important gauge of consumers’ willingness to make such a significant purchase. Just last Tuesday, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had already improved considerably in April, posted another large gain in May. The Index now stands at 54.9, up from 40.8 in April.

It’s interesting how the two droughts differ from one another. When a drought in rainfall is nearing its end, we enjoy more of the precious wet stuff with each passing shower. When a real estate drought subsides, the choice of incredible buying opportunities dries up a little bit more with each passing sale.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Sarasota-Bradenton Price Drops are Good News for Homebuyers and Sellers

May 12th, 2009 The Real Estate Market

Headlines of an article posted online from the Sarasota Herald Tribune website…
“Sarasota-Bradenton Posts Nation’s 7th Biggest Home Price Drop”

…and what good news it could be for the homebuyer!

Let’s take a closer look at some other “dropping” statistics, but positive ones. In April of 2008, Trendgraphix reported that Sarasota County had a 14.6 month supply of inventory based on current listings and pending properties. April of 2009 showed a drop of that number to a 7 month inventory or a 52% “drop.” What does this mean? It means that buyer confidence in the local real estate market is returning. It means that buyers are moving off that fence. They are taking advantage of pricing that is correcting itself from the runaway inflation of years like 2005 where the annual appreciation of homes exceeded 30% due to a lack of inventory and frenzied investor buying. This is the statistic that we need to be creating the buzz about. This change in inventory is a positive trend that every prospective buyer should know and heed. It is a true sign of a market that is in the process of a healthy correction.

Admittedly, we are cautiously optimistic that this trend continues. However, this should carry a word of caution to the contemplating buyer that he can’t wait too long to take his foot off the fence. The inventory of homes to choose from is dwindling! Consider these statistics:


§ The number of Sarasota homes that went under contract in January was 763 while the number of homes contracted in April was 1207…that’s a 58% increase in four months.

§ The number of Sarasota homes closed in January was 489 compared to 734 in April…that’s a 50% increase in four months.

And what’s happening to the pricing of those sales? Let’s go beyond comparing year to year and look at what’s happened year to date. Today’s Buyer should be aware that the sold prices are going up as evidenced in the first four months of this year in Sarasota County.

§ The average sold price has risen each month from January till April, from $197,000 to $221,000.

§ The average listing price has also risen each month from January till April from $515,000 to $545,000.

§ The median sold price has risen in January through April from $123,000 to $134,000.
§ The average square foot pricing has risen in January through April from $121.90 to $134.10.

It has been said that the only true way we will know if we have hit the bottom of the market is when prices and units of sale start to go up! Well, if you look at these stats…I’d say the bottom very well could be behind us and the Buyer needs to take his foot off the fence and hit the ground running to your nearest Realtor!

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Blue Skies in the Forecast

As appeared
Michael Saunders@Home
May, 2009

The news out of our market has been more encouraging since the last issue of Saunders@Home. After months and months of stormy skies, we are noticing large patches of blue over Southwest Florida. Closed and pending sales have been steadily ticking upwards for months; and March was clearly no exception. Sales of single-family homes in Sarasota-Bradenton were up eight percent over last March and up 35 percent over last month. Even more heartening was the official news that for the first time in a long time, the median price for a single-family home in Sarasota-Bradenton rose by four percent between February and March.

Now that season is winding down I am delighted to report that the flurry of activity in our real estate market isn’t. Snowbirds and spring breakers may be headed north, but call volume to MS&C’s Appointment Center hit a record high last week; and our agents are busier than ever showing properties and writing contracts. In just one day, we set 318 appointments for property showings. The next day we logged 307; unheard of even in the headiest days of the boom.

Our total March call volume of 6,093 was the highest ever recorded in the nine-year history of the Appointment Center; and was nearly 18 percent higher than in March of 2004 when the boom was in full swing. Moreover, recent buyers are wasting no time informing friends and families about the unprecedented buying opportunities that have led to such a dramatic resumption in sales. We fully expect the summer to be unusually busy and productive.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

INVENTORIES SOUTHWEST DROP

INVENTORIES OF PROPERTIES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DROP TO LOWEST
LEVELS IN 39 MONTHS

Exerpt
As appeared
April 13th, 2009
Michael Saunders & Company

ALL INDICATORS POINT TO A MARKET ON THE MEND
“It’s an absolute perfect storm from a buyer’s point-of-view,” said Michael Saunders, founder and CEO of Michael Saunders & Company, in explaining the market dynamics behind the substantial uptick in sales and pending sales that continued unabated through March; to say nothing of the corresponding decline in available inventories, as measured by TRENDGRAPHIX for its latest report on monthly sales within the region’s MLS.

“Several key fronts have merged to cause buyers to shrug off fear, cast indecision aside; and respond to the notion that right now is the best time to buy properties since the turn of the century.” Saunders explains. “In addition to the lowest prices in recent memory, interest rates are presently hovering around 4.78 percent, lenders are back in their comfort zone lending again; and buyers who haven’t owned a home in three years are apt to qualify for a first-time homebuyer tax credit—of up to $8,000—as long as they purchase by December 1. In other words, the bottom that everyone has been looking for is beginning to form; and the smart money is back to considering prime location even as it searches for unprecedented values. The best-priced opportunities in the choicest locations are selling first and fast.”

TRENDGRAPHIX’s latest report for March—just released—shows that months of inventory based on closed sale transactions have dropped to their lowest levels in over 39 months according to the latest MLS data for March, 2009. In the Tri-County region of Sarasota, Manatee and Charlotte counties, inventories are at their lowest since December 2005.

COUNTY HIGHS AND LOWS
Sarasota County sales increased 26.2 percent from February to March 2009. Inventory decreased 2.4 percent during this same time period. Pending sales increased by 25.7 percent. 82.4 percent of the homes sold for under $300,000; 9.9 percent of the homes sold for between $300,000 and $500,000; and 7.6 percent of the homes sold for over $500,000.

Manatee County sales increased 32.2 percent from February to March 2009. Inventory decreased 1.7 percent during this same time period. Pending sales increased by 19.2 percent. 84.2 percent of the homes sold for under $300,000; 10.5 percent of the homes sold for between $300,000 and $500,000; and 5.1 percent of the homes sold for over $500,000.

Charlotte County sales increased 28.1 percent from February to March 2009. Inventory decreased 3.1 percent during this same time period. Pending sales increased by 42.9 percent. 93.3 percent of the homes sold for under $300,000; 4.8 percent of the homes sold for between $300,000 and $500,000; and 1.8 percent of the homes sold for over $500,000.